Archive for January 2013

The future price movement of gold may be forecast.

As of today, Jan 25th 2013,
the gold price is currently falling.
So, it is good to remember
the long term future price movement of gold
may be forecast.

–The gold price correlates with the US National Debt.
National Debt vs. Gold Price 1

And the Fed plans to continue to print:

Dec 13, 2012
“The Federal Reserve officially announced QE4+2 yesterday….
The FOMC statement said it would consider raising the federal funds rate above 0%-0.25%
if the unemployment rate fell to 6.5% or the inflation rate hit 2.5%.”

and *must* continue to print.

Jan 24, 2013
“The Federal Reserve pushed its balance sheet beyond $3 trillion
for the first time this week
while undertaking open-ended purchases
of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities

Fed Balance Sht 2

and major international Central Banks
will continue to spend

Central Bank Balance Sheets 3

–The gold price correlates with the Debt Limit.

Debt Limit vs. Gold Price 4

“The Treasury Department’s own projections
have US debt at $23 trillion by 2015
a 64 percent increase to the current debt limit.
As the Fed continues to print
the Monetary Base increases.”

–The gold price also correlates with the Monetary Base.

MZM Money Stock vs. Gold Price 5

And, the Monetary Base is increasing.

MZM Money Stock 6

Trend Channel

Gold Trend Channel LogScale 7


Drive back target is base of pierce bar.

As in Feb 2004
and Mar 2009
now in Dec 2012
after the breakout
above the top of the W pattern
the target on the drive back down
has been the base of the bar
piercing the W top.

After this drive back target has been hit
the move has been
in the opposite direction
and gold has made substantial moves up.

The target has been hit.
The downward move in gold
is now likely complete.

Targ Hit

Below article posted Aug 2012

Since its Low on 12/29/11
Gold has been moving up
for longer than any other up move
since it’s Top on 9/6/11.

So, per Gann the trend is up.

$GOLD has now pierced
and GLD has now pierced
it’s W pattern center high
formed on 6/6/12.

When the center high is pierced
Per Gann this is a safe place to enter.

If the market moves
as it has in the past
we can then expect
based on the HUI chart:

1 2000
A launch straight up.

2 2004
A few weeks attempt
to break the bottom of the pierce bar
[close the gap]
then a launch straight up.

3 2009
A couple of weeks attempt
to break the bottom of the pierce bar
[close the gap]
then a launch straight up.