Archive for the ‘HSBC’ Tag

Drive back target is base of pierce bar.

As in Feb 2004
and Mar 2009
now in Dec 2012
after the breakout
above the top of the W pattern
the target on the drive back down
has been the base of the bar
piercing the W top.

After this drive back target has been hit
the move has been
in the opposite direction
and gold has made substantial moves up.

The target has been hit.
The downward move in gold
is now likely complete.

Targ Hit

Below article posted Aug 2012

Since its Low on 12/29/11
Gold has been moving up
for longer than any other up move
since it’s Top on 9/6/11.

So, per Gann the trend is up.

$GOLD has now pierced
and GLD has now pierced
it’s W pattern center high
formed on 6/6/12.

When the center high is pierced
Per Gann this is a safe place to enter.

If the market moves
as it has in the past
we can then expect
based on the HUI chart:

1 2000
A launch straight up.

2 2004
A few weeks attempt
to break the bottom of the pierce bar
[close the gap]
then a launch straight up.

3 2009
A couple of weeks attempt
to break the bottom of the pierce bar
[close the gap]
then a launch straight up.

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Market Manipulation – Driving the Market Down

Banks or Funds
can profitably
drive the gold market down
by first buying puts or selling calls
or selling futures
then dumping large quantities of gold or gold stocks
in a short period of time.

09 17 2012 Volume Driv Dn

Then buying in, or covering
at the new lower price level.

There will come a time
wen they cant driv th mkt dn any further,
cause *sentiment is at an xtrm*
and no one wil buy their protective calls
or sel them protectiv puts
and no one wil buy their future cntrts
so they will not be able t hedge
a large short position
in order t continu th driv dn.
Then th mkt must rise
as they cvr their shts,
in order to reset sentiment.

But there r xceptns eg.
an investment bank/broker
could driv prices dn
without shorting from their own acct
by selling out [redeeming] client shares:

MORGAN STANLEY‘s Wealth platform unit has finally,
after months and months of considerations,
pulled the plug on the fund [A PAULSON & CO FUND] that for the second year in a row
is one of the three worst performing in the weekly HSBC report
and IS NOW REDEEMING.
What however is notable is that
MS withdrawing HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS in feeder capital
may well explain why gold has seen such a dramatic dislocation [ie BIG DROP]
in the past week.
Recall that at Paulson & Co, gold is not simply an investment –
the bulk of direct gold investments at the once legendary investor
are in the form of (largely underperforming) gold mining stocks –
but an actual investment class.
In other words, instead of being denominated in USD,
investors are actually denominated in (paper) gold,
with a fixed conversion into GLD at inception.
This means that upon liquidation of gold-denominated shares,
any gold-denominated shares,
he has no choice but to sell GLD,
and by virtue of this being the most liquid paper instrument in the PM space, gold.

“Does the massive gold dislocation [ie BIG DROP] in the chart below

Fund Redemptions

now make more sense
especially since Paulson was aware of MS’ intentions days in advance and traded,
or in this case liquidated, appropriately)?”

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GOLD 1
The commercials [JPM and possibly HSBC]
who are in the process of covering their shorts

have tried three times in May
to  break the Dec 29, 2011 gold low
and cover their shorts
by buying the sell stops below.

Anyone who wants gold around that low level
probably could not buy the stops below the low
cause JPM probably put their orders in for those stops
when they started to drive the market down.
And, as I understand it
the High Frequency Traders [JPM]
pay off the exchange
for the privlage of front running other orders.
So, other purchasers must place their orders
above the Dec low.

If the Chinese [or any sovereign nation]
wants to buy gold,
as JPM sells to drive the price down
they can grab that gold for sale
at no cost to them,
because they can buy gold
the same way they buy bonds.
When an enterprise does business in dollars
and wants to exchange those dollars for Yuan,
the government takes the dollars
and prints the Yuan for payment.
They then use the dollars received to buy bonds…
or gold.

Since the gold is paid for in printed money
and is free to the government
[tho not to the taxpayers]
their purchasing power is unlimited.
They can hold a basket above the low,
indefinitely.
The huge buying volume
on June 1st
appears to be capitulation by JPM
and loading of longs
for the next move up.

There is reason to believe
the gold price will be at $1950
before it will fall below $1523.