Archive for the ‘Precious metal’ Tag

Gold COT net short and long positions.

Gold Small Specs – Largest Short Position ever ?

COT Small Specs Net Position

Gold Large specs – Largest Short Position ever.

COT Specs Short Position

Gold Commercials – Largest Long Position in last 18 mos.  [Blees 100]

COT Commercial Traders Blees Rating 100


Gold Reversion to the Mean price rise.

GLD representing gold
is currently:

–Greater than 2 Standard Deviations below it’s 200 EMA
–Greater than 20% below it’s 200 SMA.

Gold Reversion to the mean

These are historical extremes
and similar locations to the 2008 stretched bottoms.

Gold appears due for a
reversion to the mean
[at least to its 200 MA]
price rise.

Tho note,
In 2008, after returning to it’s 200 MA
gold plunged again below its prior low.

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Wednesday, May 16th  Keith  Weiner

On Monday, May 14, something happened
that hasn’t happened since Dec of 2008.
Two successive near-month precious metals futures contracts
were in backwardation at the same time

the May silver contract is giving away a 3% annualized profit
to anyone who would sell physical silver and buy a May future
that delivers in a few weeks (thus recovering the same position).
Even more incredibly,
no one can or will take the profit that is dangling out there!

I think that it is a lack of unencumbered metal.
The markets for precious metals, silver more than gold,
have become quite tight.

Sunday, June 3, 2012  Adam

May was the highest monthly volume in the history of GDX
(with a bullish monthly candle to mark a bottom)
and Friday was the highest daily up volume in the history of the GDX ETF.
clearly, the big boys … have now established their positions.

Commercials are eliminating gold shorts.

Commercials are building a heavy long euro position.

A dollar drop may be in the cards.

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The commercials [JPM and possibly HSBC]
who are in the process of covering their shorts

have tried three times in May
to  break the Dec 29, 2011 gold low
and cover their shorts
by buying the sell stops below.

Anyone who wants gold around that low level
probably could not buy the stops below the low
cause JPM probably put their orders in for those stops
when they started to drive the market down.
And, as I understand it
the High Frequency Traders [JPM]
pay off the exchange
for the privlage of front running other orders.
So, other purchasers must place their orders
above the Dec low.

If the Chinese [or any sovereign nation]
wants to buy gold,
as JPM sells to drive the price down
they can grab that gold for sale
at no cost to them,
because they can buy gold
the same way they buy bonds.
When an enterprise does business in dollars
and wants to exchange those dollars for Yuan,
the government takes the dollars
and prints the Yuan for payment.
They then use the dollars received to buy bonds…
or gold.

Since the gold is paid for in printed money
and is free to the government
[tho not to the taxpayers]
their purchasing power is unlimited.
They can hold a basket above the low,
The huge buying volume
on June 1st
appears to be capitulation by JPM
and loading of longs
for the next move up.

There is reason to believe
the gold price will be at $1950
before it will fall below $1523.

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This is hard to believe.
Clearly JPM is dumping their shorts

But despite two hi vol drives down:
7,500 contracts on Monday, Apr 30th.
14,000 lots  Tuesday May 8th
the continued attempt has been unsuccessful
in breaking the Dec Lo,
and buying all the stops below it,
on the May 15 down move or today.
And today after approaching it
a long tailed hammer reversal.

Either they are luring in more longs
to build up the stops
or there are veeery strong interested buyers.

at this level.