Gold price vs. the US monetary base

Nov 8, 2014
Alan Greenspan:
“Gold is a currency.
It is still, by all evidence, a premier currency.
No fiat currency, including the dollar, can match it
…Gold has a monetary characteristic which is intrinsic.”

Gold price vs US monetary base

Gold price vs US monetary base

a Forcast Gold price vs  US monetary base 2

Posted December 15, 2015 by britefire in Uncategorized

Tagged with

Gold Repatriation

Central Banks may *never* repatriate their citizens gold reserves.

What central bankers choose to ignore:

–Germany

” the Bundesbank asked to have some portion of its gold

sitting supposedly – in the NY Fed vault in NYC
sent back Germany.
The TOTAL amount is 1800 tonnes.
After behind the scenes negotiations,
the Fed agreed to ship 300 tonnes back
over seven years.
To this day, the time required for that shipment
has never been explained.”

“…officials at the Bank of England told German officials
that allowing them in to the vault
to perform physical audits of their gold
just isn’t possible
because there isn’t enough room,
or enough “suitable rooms,”
in which to do it.

–Netherlands

“Almost 300 “concerned Netherlands citizens”
have joined the German initiative for insight about the gold reserves.
In a petition the citizens committee demands “full openness on the quantity and storage location of the Netherlands’ physical gold, and on the extent and nature of the gold claims.”

Klaas Knot, President of the DNB,
said 90 per cent of the Netherlands’ gold reserves
are kept overseas,
claiming further that “the gold is fine where it is.”
Much of that figure is placed in vaults in New York City,
without identifying names of banks or institutions.”

–Azerbaijan

“JP Morgan, one of the bullion banks that acts as a custodian,
will see 15mt of gold leave its London vaults
*over an undisclosed period of time*,
according to the state oil fund of Azerbaijan.”

–Mexico

” the Mexican central bank
has never inspected the gold it bought, has not performed purity

tests on it
and doesn’t even have a list
of all the gold bars stored in London.”

Banxico was finally forced to reveal its position in gold.
When pressed for specifics about its gold holdings
they answered,
“it is not possible to specify with certainty
the number of bars purchased”

–Poland

“Poland currently owns around 109 tons of gold deposited abroad.

Most of the reserves are stored in the UK”

“a movement to repatriate national gold reserves
from vaulting … at the Bank of England in London
has arisen in Poland.”

“In order to put pressure on the Polish National Bank, advocates

have launched an action entitled. ‘Give Us Our gold’. ”

Switzerland

“Switzerland is to hold a referendum
that would … repatriate gold reserves held abroad
and keep them at home.”

“Swiss People’s Party’s efforts
to gain enough signatures
to force the Swiss National Bank (SNB), …
reports, they reached the required 100,000 signature mark”
“it is not uncommon
for the period between an initiative being accepted for referendum

and a vote being held
to extend to several years.”

Finland

most of Finland’s 49.1 tons of gold reserves is held outside the country’s borders, the bulk of it in London.
Leaders of a Finnish repatriation movement are calling for a national referendum on the matter no later than May 2014.

“Ecuador,

[is] demanding that one-third of its foreign holdings be returned to in-country custody.

Ecuador’s gold claims amount to only 26.3 tons”

But when the Central Bank
was serious about repatriating their citizen’s gold reserves:

–Venezuela

Venezuela demanded the return of its 200 tonnes
held in London, NYC and Switzerland
and received it all within about four months.

Meanwhile:

Chinese Gold Reserves increase:

Chinese Gold Reserves Increase

Chinese Gold Reserves Increase

Russian Gold Reserves increase:

Russian Gold Reserves increase

Russian Gold Reserves increase

Distribution – Stock Market Topping

“A healthy strengthening bull market
is accompanied by a large number of stocks
making moderate upward advances in price.
A weakening bull market
is characterized by a small number of stocks
making large advances in price,
giving the false appearance that all is well.”

The stock market trend is up.
SPX Weekly Divergence

The Bullish Percentage of SPX is down.
SPX Bullish Percentage
New Highs decreasing vs. New Lows increasing.

New Highs - New Lows

Percent of stocks above their 50 Day Moving Average is down.
Stocks  Above their 50  Day MA

Another high with another divergence may occur
but
TheEndIsNear

Devalueing the dollar

Devalueing the dollar
ie printing to pay the debt
will allow the US
to pay off our debts in cheap dollars,

and also give a competitive advantage
to US global corporations
against countries who dont print as fast as the US

also, reduce relativly,
US workers wages
so we can be more competative in the world market

but

it will also reduce the purchasing power of the dollar
meaning a lower living standard
for you and me
and all the people in the country

US Hosehold Income

US Family Net Worth

Wealth Distribution

Out of control ?

Out of control ?

By printing money
it is hoped to:
–Replenish bank reserves
–Hold interest rates low,
to moderate interest payments on treasury loans,
and to encourage home purchases
–Raise the stock market.

By keeping rates low
and paying interest on bank reserves
the banks have been successfully induced
to withold commercial loans
thereby holding the economy in check
and so, in spite of printing,
holding money velocity low
and so, keeping some pressure on inflation.

Velocity 2013

But,

Jun 27, 2013
the Treasury sold $35 billion in five-year notes
to the lowest demand since September 2009,
with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.45 times.”

“The April TIC report showed
a shocking drop in foreign ownership of US government debt.”

“the selloff [in the bond market]
has now reached the status of the worst ever bond market selloff
(of 90 days or less)
in percentage terms.

“Since May 2nd 2013,
10-year yields have risen from 1.626% to 2.609%,
a 98.3bp selloff
which means that yields have risen 60.5%
in less than two months”

10 Year Yield

Considering:

–“There are more than $12 trillion paper dollar assets
(stocks, bonds and cash)
held by foreigners outside the U.S.”

if this is the start of ‘recognition’
and foreign holdings of US paper is offloaded
rates will substantially rise

also, as

–“the global derivatives
have increased in size from $100 trillion in 1998,
to $1.2 quadrillion today.”
and the majority of those derivatives are interest rate swaps
and that the banks have sold the fixd rate,
and hold the variable rate

the effect of rate rise, on the banks,
on which the world economy relies,
will be catastrophic,

and the expense to the treasury
will be far greater than tax income will cover.

Except for a miracle
this implies immanent western world
deflation on bank collapse
or hyperinflation on attempts to print
to cover bank or treasury payments
or simultaneously, both.

Gold COT net short and long positions.

Gold Small Specs – Largest Short Position ever ?

COT Small Specs Net Position

Gold Large specs – Largest Short Position ever.

COT Specs Short Position

Gold Commercials – Largest Long Position in last 18 mos.  [Blees 100]

COT Commercial Traders Blees Rating 100

Comex Stocks Plunge

Comex Stocks Plunge 1

Posted April 25, 2013 by britefire in Uncategorized

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